This article contains excerpts of chapter 42 of the book "You are not so smart why you have too many friends on facebook, why your memory is mostly fiction, and 46 other ways you're deluding yourself" by David McRaney.
"The future is the result of actions, and actions are the result of behavior, and behavior is the result of prediction". – This is called the Thomas Theorem.
“If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.” – The sociologist W. I. Thomas postulated in 1928.
Thomas noticed when people are trying to predict future events, they make a lot of assumptions about the present. If those assumptions are powerful enough, the resulting actions will lead to the predicted future.
The easiest example of this is the rumor of a shortage. If you believe there will be a shortage of toothpaste, you will go and try to buy some before the stores run out—just like everyone else. Sure enough, the shortage occurs.
In social psychology, a version of the self fulfilling prophecy called labeling theory shows how when someone believes you are a certain kind of person, you tend to live up to those expectations. If your teacher thinks you are smart, the teacher treats you like a smart person. You get extra attention and respect. You react with more effort, more drive, and the positive feedback loop leads to the fulfillment of your label. Research also shows that if you believe someone is going to be an asshole, you will act hostile, thus causing them to act like an asshole. This same research shows if people think their partner doesn’t love them, they will interpret small slights as big hurts—and this will then lead to a feeling of rejection that causes the partner to distance him-or herself. The feedback loop will build and build until the prophecy is fulfilled.
On the 11th of May 2022, I witnessed a self fulfilling Prophecy at play during a Football (soccer) match I featured in. While the match was at play the referee made a lot of blundered decisions which clearly didn't sit well with my teammates, this led to resentment within members of the team against the referee. They MAY have had assumptions that the referee was an asshole and acted hostile towards him during play, this was obvious when the referee decided to award a foul goal to the opposing team, which caused a brawl.
Personally I feel the referee acted professionally until hostility forced him to act first by striking my teammate. He's decision to strike my teammate served as a confirmation bias to those who had preconceived notions of him being an asshole. During the confrontation I could hear my teammates hurling insults at him, whilst having discussion amongst themselves of their hindsight notions of the referee.
I opine that the brawl was a result of hostility which was a result of actions which was a result of behaviour which was a result of prediction.
The sociologist Robert K. Merton coined the term “self-fulfilling prophecy” in 1968. By his estimation, the initial phase is always a false interpretation of an ongoing situation. The behavior that follows assumes the situation is real, and when enough people act as if something is real it can sometimes make it so. What was once false becomes true, and in hindsight it seems as if it always was.
In summary: A negative outlook will lead to negative predictions, and you will start to unconsciously manipulate your environment to deliver those predictions.
Tags:
Psychology